Tuesday, January 25, 2005

2) Lame Ducks and the Mid-Term Elections

2005- Historically, the most productive year of a presidency is the first year. Even more so when it is the first year of a second term, as the President’s staff has experience moving legislation and the President has passed a vote of confidence by the public.

2006- After the first year in power, you start approaching the mid-term elections and the House gets conservative on passing major legislation as politicians look to avoid issues that their opponents can use against them. The flip-side to this generality is that Bush and Rove took the Dems to school in 2002 by forcing them to take a stand on the Iraq Resolution just before the mid-terms.

2007- It’s a decent bet that Dems will take back a few seats in both Houses of Congress – though they will probably still be in the minority. That said, an ascendant Democratic Party is likely to form a stronger coalition than it recently has and will find it relatively easy to pick off Moderate Republicans on the more expansive legislation.

2008- As the election year gets into full swing, policy divides within each party get exacerbated. You also get many egos looking for different things. As Bush scurries to solidify his legacy, the ideological divides within the Republican party rise to the surface.


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